he [would be unlikely to]/[wouldn't] join us when

EngLearner

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John, Peter, Rick, and some other colleagues from the office had agreed in person to meet at 4:00 pm to discuss business matters. However, John sent everyone an email informing them that he had rescheduled the meeting to 3:00 pm. Peter, who hadn't received John's email, informed Rick that he had to leave but assured him he would be back in time for the meeting at 4:00 pm. Rick then informed Peter that the meeting had been rescheduled and that he should return before 3:00 pm. Later, during lunch, Rick spoke with John and, among other things, mentioned:

Peter didn't receive your email. He didn't know that the meeting had been rescheduled. If I hadn't told him, he [would be unlikely to]/[wouldn't] join us when it starts at 3:00 pm.

Can either option be used in the mixed conditional that I wrote? I also wonder if the blue tenses "hadn't told" and "starts" work in this context.
 
If I hadn't told him, he wouldn't have been able to join us at 3pm.
If I hadn't told him, he wouldn't be joining us at 3pm.
 
If I hadn't told him, he wouldn't have been able to join us at 3pm.
Would this option be more, or less possible?

If I hadn't told him, he wouldn't be able to join us at 3pm.
 
Would this option be more, or less possible?

If I hadn't told him, he wouldn't be able to join us at 3pm.
There's no such thing as "more or less possible". Something's either possible or it's not.

Your sentence is OK.
 
I think emsr2d2's first version using the third conditional is more natural for an action that didn't happen.
 
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