Beijing had no appetite for starting a war over Taiwan "its military could not win".

[sitifan]

In the past, it was clear Beijing had no appetite for starting a war over Taiwan its military could not win. (Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris)
What is the antecedent of the relative clause in Italics?

 

[Barque]

There's an elided "that" there.

...Beijing had no appetite for starting a war over Taiwan that its military could not win. The antecedent is "a war over Taiwan".

 

[SoothingDave]

The antecedent for "its" is Beijing. Think about it. Why would China be reluctant to start a war that it thought Taiwan could not win?

 

[Barque]

Agreed as far as 'its" is concerned. However the OP was asking about the antecedent of the entire relative clause, which is "its military could not win".